Senin, 31 Oktober 2011

[T447.Ebook] Fee Download Regression Diagnostics: An Introduction (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences), by John Fox

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Regression Diagnostics: An Introduction (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences), by John Fox

Regression Diagnostics: An Introduction (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences), by John Fox



Regression Diagnostics: An Introduction (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences), by John Fox

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Regression Diagnostics: An Introduction (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences), by John Fox

With Regression Diagnostics, researchers now have an accessible explanation of the techniques needed for exploring problems that compromise a regression analysis and for determining whether certain assumptions appear reasonable. The book covers such topics as the problem of collinearity in multiple regression, dealing with outlying and influential data, non-normality of errors, non-constant error variance and the problems and opportunities presented by discrete data. In addition, sophisticated diagnostics based on maximum-likelihood methods, scores tests, and constructed variables are introduced.

  • Sales Rank: #815927 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: SAGE Publications, Inc
  • Published on: 1991-08-14
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.50" h x 5.50" w x .75" l, .26 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 96 pages
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author

John Fox is professor of sociology at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. Fox earned a PhD in sociology from the University of Michigan in 1972, and prior to arriving at McMaster, he taught at the University of Alberta and at York University in Toronto, where he was cross-appointed in the sociology and mathematics and statistics departments and directed the university's statistical consulting service. He has delivered numerous lectures and workshops on statistical topics in North and South America, Europe, and Asia, at such places as the summer program of the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research, the Oxford University Spring School in Quantitative Methods for Social Research, and the annual meetings of the American Sociological Association. Much of his recent work has been on formulating methods for visualizing complex statistical models and on developing software in the R statistical computing environment. He is the author and co-author of many articles, in such journals as Sociological Methodology, Sociological Methods and Research, The Journal of the American Statistical Association, The Journal of Statistical Software, The Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Statistical Science, Social Psychology Quarterly, The Canadian Review of Sociology and Anthropology, and The Canadian Journal of Sociology. He has written a number of other books, including Regression Diagnostics (SAGE, 1991), Nonparametric Simple Regression (SAGE, 2000), Multiple and General-ized Nonparametric Regression (SAGE, 2000), A Mathematical Primer for Social Statistics (SAGE, 2008), and, with Sanford Weisberg, An R Companion to Applied Regression, Second Edition (SAGE, 2010). Fox also edits the SAGE Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences (QASS) monograph series.

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3 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Great condensed reference for diagnostic techniques
By Alethephant
This book is an ideal, comprehensive short reference for regression diagnostics that has most or all of the techniques in one place. John Fox is the current master guru of regression, and his writings are very authoritative. Very useful desk reference for the practicing statistician, but perhaps not totally accessible to the beginning learner.

2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Very obtuse and incomplete
By Abacus
This book, given its focus on a narrow subject, is actually pretty long. 90 pages to cover regression diagnostic is a long slog. Yet, the author sates that "because of space considerations... there is no treatment of [autocorrelation]." That is a huge gap as the independence of the residuals is one of the main assumptions of the linear regression model. The author admits that much when he describes the corresponding Gauss-Markov theorem on pg. 40.

Throughout the book there were so many math notations that were undefined that I could not clearly understand what the author was conveying. For instance, on pg. 16 he talks about the Mellows stat associated with the terms Cp and p. Neither are clearly defined. I guess p is number of independent variables (a guess at best). But, I have no idea what Cp stands for. Later on page 24, he defines the h or hat value in a less than transparent way. On page 28, m is undefined. On pages 68, 87, and 89, NID is undefined. On page 89, V is undefined. Given that those terms play important roles in many equations throughout the book, I could not grasp their meaning.

The narrative itself is often perplexing. For instance, on page 25, the author states: "... even if the errors have equal variances..., the residuals do not." Given that residuals and errors represent the same thing, this quote is not readily comprehensible. There are other somewhat confusing sentences within the book.

Occasionally, I came across tests I knew and calculated long hand in Excel. Yet, as he described them I could hardly recognize them. This includes the Breusch and Pagan test and White test on pages 73, and 74.

Two basic guides to overall econometrics do a good job of covering the entire subject including diagnostic tests in a far more transparent way. Those are: Econometrics For Dummies by Roberto Pedace and a A Guide to Econometrics - 4th Edition by Peter Kennedy.

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Good introduction to problems with multiple regression
By Steven Peterson
Multiple regression is a powerful and useful statistical technique. It and its derivative techniques are workhorses in the social sciences. Much of my own quantitative research is based on the use of regression. There are real strengths of this method: the results have pretty straightforward interpretation; you can control for a wide variety of variables; software (such as SPSS) makes it easy as pie to run.

However, there are problems with multiple regression that the user needs to be aware of. For example, if two independent variables are highly intercorrelated, you may get--as one result--strange results. High intercorrelations are indicators of the dread problem of multicollinearity. Hence, when running a regression, one would want to test for this effect. Thankfully, programs like SPSS allow one to test for multicollinearity in a variety of ways. Just so, outliers (extreme scores) can throw off results. The researcher can check to see if there are such outliers. Other problems for regression discussed in this slender volume: non-normality, heteroscedasticity, and nonlinearity. The good thing is that contemporary statistical software allows one to check these out.

So, a good resource for the person wanting to run multiple regression while making sure that the data do not confound their results.

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Jumat, 28 Oktober 2011

[U797.Ebook] PDF Download Western Civilization: A History of European Society, Volume I: To 1715 (with CD-ROM), by Steven Hause, William Maltby

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Western Civilization: A History of European Society, Volume I: To 1715 (with CD-ROM), by Steven Hause, William Maltby

This is Volume I: To 1715 of WESTERN CIVILIZATION: A HISTORY OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY. Completely revised with your students' success in mind, WESTERN CIVILIZATION: A HISTORY OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY offers a concise overview of the social and political forces that have shaped the West. In fewer pages than other texts, Hause and Maltby's narrative presents a social history of Western civilization within the essential contexts of major military and political events. The text's strong reliance on primary sources -- excerpts of original documents that flesh out the concepts covered in the narrative, tables and graphs that collect the raw social and economic data of history -- brings the reader right into the pages of history, giving them a fascinating look at the events that have shaped the world in which they live. To help students truly grasp history and succeed in the course, extensive pedagogical support complements Hause and Maltby's WESTERN CIVILIZATION. Within the text, a colorful new design and prominent subheads create a "virtual outline" that lets students quickly locate, read, and review key information. Captivating pedagogy -- an in-text pronunciation guide, critical thinking questions built right into the captions of the tables and graphs, and extensive end-of-chapter review materials -- involves students in the story of the West by getting them to engage with it. WESTERN CIVILIZATION: A HISTORY OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY, Second Edition is available in the following volume splits: WESTERN CIVILIZATION: A HISTORY OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY, Second Edition (Chapters 1-32) ISBN: 053462118X WESTERN CIVILIZATION: A HISTORY OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY, Second Edition, Volume 1: To 1715 (Chapters 1-16) ISBN: 0534621201 WESTERN CIVILIZATION: A HISTORY OF EUROPEAN SOCIETY, Second Edition, Volume II: Since 1550, (Chapters 15-32) ISBN: 0534621228

  • Sales Rank: #1619845 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: Cengage Learning
  • Published on: 2004-08-03
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 10.78" h x .55" w x 8.58" l, 2.03 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 448 pages
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

Review
(Single volume contains Chapters 1?32, Volume I: To 1715 contains Chapters 1?16, Volume II: Since 1550 contains Chapters 15?32) 1. The Ancient Middle East: Mesopotamia, Egypt, Phoenicia, Israel. 2. Ancient Greece to the End of the Peloponnesian Wars. 3. Greek Culture and Its Hellenistic Diffusion. 4. The Rise of the Roman Republic. 5. Social, Political, and Economic Structures of Imperial Rome. 6. The Origins of Christianity and the Decline of the Roman Empire. 7. Rome?s Successors: Byzantium, Islam, and the Germanic West. 8. The Beginnings of the Feudal Age. 9. Medieval Religion and Thought. 10. Economic Development and Urban Growth in the High Middle Ages. 11. Material and Social Life in the Middle Ages. 12. Plague, War, and Social Change in the "Long" Fourteenth Century. 13. The Renaissance: Political Renewal and Intellectual Change. 14. The Religious Reformations of the Sixteenth Century. 15. Overseas Conquest and Religious War to 1648. 16. Preindustrial Europe: Science, the Economy, and Political Reorganization. 17. The Social and Economic Structure of the Old Regime. 18. Daily Life in the Old Regime. 19. The Political Evolution of the Old Regime, 1715?89. 20. The Culture of Old Regime Europe. 21. The French Revolution and Napoleon, 1789?1815. 22. Industrialization and the Social and Economic Structure of Europe. 23. Daily Life in the Nineteenth Century. 24. The Defense of the Old Regime, 1815?48. 25. Europe in an Age of Nationalism, 1848?70. 26. Europe in the Belle Epoque, 1871?1914. 27. Imperialism, War, and Revolution, 1881?1920. 28. Europe in an Age of Dictatorship, 1919?39 553. 29. Europe in an Age of Total War: World War II, 1939?45. 30. The Social and Economic Structure of Contemporary Europe. 31. Europe in the Age of the Cold War, 1945?75. 32. The New Belle Epoque: Democracy and Prosperity Since 1975.

About the Author
Steven C. Hause is Senior Scholar in the Humanities and Co-Director of European Studies at Washington University in St. Louis. He was formerly. Professor of History and Fellow in International Studies at the University of Missouri¿St. Louis, where he has won the Chancellor¿s Award for Excellence in Teaching (1996) and the Pierre Laclede Honors College Teacher of the Year Award (1989). He is the author and co-author of three previous books on the history of the women¿s rights movement in modern France, which have won four research prizes: WOMEN¿S SUFFRAGE AND SOCIAL POLITICS IN THE FRENCH THIRD REPUBLIC, with Anne R. Kenney (Princeton University Press, 1984); HUBERTINE AUCLERT, THE FRENCH SUFFRAGETTE (Yale University Press, 1987); and FEMINISMS OF THE BELLE EPOQUE, with Jennifer Waelti-Walters (University of Nebraska Press, 1994). His essays have appeared in several journals, including AMERICAN HISTORICAL REVIEW AND FRENCH HISTORICAL STUDIES.

William S. Maltby is Professor of History Emeritus at the University of Missouri at St. Louis, where he continues to teach on a regular basis. Among his publications are: THE BLACK LEGEND IN ENGLAND: THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANTI-SPANISH SENTIMENT, 1558¿1660 (Duke University Press, 1971); ALBA: A BIOGRAPHY OF FERNANDO ALVAREZ DE TOLEDO, THIRD DUKE OF ALBA, 1507¿1582 (University of California Press, 1983); and articles on various aspects of Early Modern European history. From 1977 to 1997 he also served as Executive Director of the Center for Reformation Research and as editor of several volumes and series of volumes on the history of the Reformation.

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Selasa, 25 Oktober 2011

[Y936.Ebook] Fee Download Comprehensive Clinical Nephrology, 5e, by Richard J. Johnson MD, John Feehally DM FRCP, Jurgen Floege MD FERA

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Comprehensive Clinical Nephrology, 5e, by Richard J. Johnson MD, John Feehally DM  FRCP, Jurgen Floege MD  FERA

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Handle the toughest clinical challenges with Comprehensive Clinical Nephrology. The world’s leading authorities in the field, Drs. Richard J. Johnson, John Feehally, Jürgen Floege and a team of international experts have meticulously updated this fifth edition to continue to provide the level of expert information that readers rely on from this classic reference.

  • The right amount of basic science and practical clinical guidance assists in making efficient and informed decisions.
  • Extensive updates on key topics keep you at the forefront of the field.
    • New chapters
    on glomerulonephritis associated with complement disorders, interventional treatments for hypertension, renal disease and cancer, and epidemiology and prognostic impact of acute kidney injury.
  • Over 1,500 color illustrations highlight key topics and detail pathogenesis for a full range of kidney conditions and clinical management.
  • Hundreds of color coded algorithms promote quick reference and to help you retain concepts.
  • Over 400 NEW self-assessment questions and fully searchable text available online at ExpertConsult.

    Floege, Johnson, and Feehally give you the information you need to make quick and correct clinical decisions

    • Sales Rank: #433726 in Books
    • Published on: 2014-09-03
    • Original language: English
    • Number of items: 1
    • Dimensions: 11.13" h x 1.75" w x 8.79" l, 6.44 pounds
    • Binding: Hardcover
    • 1320 pages

    Review

    "Whilst primarily aimed at clinicians, the superb readability of the text, combined with excellent illustrations, broadens its appeal to the wider renal care community…This is an excellent clinical and educational resource that I can thoroughly recommend to all members of the multidisciplinary team involved in the day-to-day care and management of renal patients."―Pugh-Clarke K, PhD, MSc, BSc, RN; Journal of Renal Care 2008:110.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
    A textbook you can actually read
    By blu
    As compared to other textbooks in nephrology, I think the explanations in this book are expressed more clearly and concisely. It has adequate basic science which does not bog you down but actually enhances the learning process. I also like the excellent pictures, diagrams and tables which are better appreciated in the hardbound book and makes it a better option than the Kindle edition.

    0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
    A nice book, with good production values at its core
    By Jehosephat Trimbleshank
    A nice book, with good production values at its core. But in places skimpy. It all depends if you want a thorough and deep understanding, or a quick nicely produced summary. It has the virtue of being up to date, but I would prefer the 4th Edition of the Oxford Textbook of Clinical Nephrology for those extra details, insights and breadth of coverage. Horses for courses. A nice trot around the paddock with CCN, but a real Grand National, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, or Kentucky Derby with OUP's OTCN. Available from December 2015 in USA.

    2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
    Great new edition!
    By Rohan Mehta
    I had the previous edition and always was a fan! New edition with the updates and comprehensive text is a must for all second year Renal fellows!

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    Comprehensive Clinical Nephrology, 5e, by Richard J. Johnson MD, John Feehally DM FRCP, Jurgen Floege MD FERA PDF
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    Minggu, 23 Oktober 2011

    [W443.Ebook] Ebook Free Up From Liberalism, by William F. Buckley

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    Up From Liberalism, by William F. Buckley

    2016 Reprint of the 1959 edition. Full facsimile of the original edition, not reproduced with Optical Recognition Software. Buckley's third book is an urbane and controversial attack on the manners and meaning of American Liberalism in the 1950s. His thesis is that the leading American liberals can be shown, in their speeches and statements, in the tacit premises that underlie their words and deeds, to be suffering from a long, but definable list of social and philosophical prejudices. "Up From Liberalism" examines the root assumptions of the Libealism of his era and asks the startling question: do the actions of prominent liberalism derive from the attributes of Liberalism?

    • Sales Rank: #295229 in Books
    • Published on: 2016-01-26
    • Original language: English
    • Number of items: 1
    • Dimensions: 9.02" h x .51" w x 5.98" l, .74 pounds
    • Binding: Paperback
    • 224 pages

    About the Author
    The legendary founder of the modern conservative movement, William F. Buckley Jr. was the author of many celebrated nonfiction books, including God and Man at Yale, as well as the bestselling Blackford Oakes spy novels and Elvis in the Morning.

    John Dos Passos (1896-1970), a member of the Lost Generation, was the author of more than forty works of fiction and nonfiction, including THREE SOLDIERS and MANHATTAN TRANSFER.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    51 of 53 people found the following review helpful.
    Up From Liberalism
    By Jeremy A. A. Purves
    I'm a college student studying on a liberal college campus who will probably pursue a career in Constitutional law. Reading this book has helped me understand my political philosophy much more clearly. Up From Liberalism by William F. Buckley, Jr. is a witty, sagacious, and very perceptive book declaring the fresh conservative alternative to liberal establishment politics. It is a must read for anyone really serious about being a political conservative. Although most of Buckley's comments are referring to past political history in the 40's and 50's, it helps one understand the ideological battle that has been raging for years in the political spectrum. Sparkling with humour and intellectual fun, Buckley quickly dispatches of his opponents' ideas with the ease of a master swordsman. This book is still valuable to read because the philosophy of liberals today hasn't really changed. To them, Government is still the answer to all of our problems. If you are a liberal, reading this book will help you understand the arguments against your position. If you are a conservative, this book will give you enjoyment, but also valid logical proof of why one should believe in limited government. I hope that everyone even slightly interested in politics reads this book.

    28 of 29 people found the following review helpful.
    One of the 25 most important conservative books
    By A Customer
    Those who came of age politically in the 1980s or later can hardly comprehend the influence Bill Buckley had on the modern conservative movement.
            He was, by far, the most attractive and thrilling conservative intellect for decades, and more than equal in debate to any liberal intellectual, as we learned on many occasions. Conservative students of my generation, confronted with an overwhelming liberal (and often unbearably smug) faculty, were greatly reassured by the knowledge that Buckley could smash the arguements of anyone on the liberal side.
            Though Up From Liberalism concerns itself largely with issues that date back to the sixties, the combination of humor and erudition Buckley uses to skewer the liberal establishment gives the book a timeless appeal.

    15 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
    Historic
    By RWR
    Learn to think; stop regurgitating.

    I am quite fond of this book, although Buckley has written and continues to write words of great elucidation. This one has been most formative for me. It is dated in its references, but the thought process and basis for reasoning is tried and true. Highly recommended for young people; especially those who consider themselves to be in one place or another politically, but are not entirely sure of the logic behind their beliefs, and would like to begin the journey of becoming a homo sapien.

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    Rabu, 19 Oktober 2011

    [M560.Ebook] PDF Download Beyond the Learning Curve: The Construction of Mind, by Craig Speelman, Kim Kirsner

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    Beyond the Learning Curve: The Construction of Mind, by Craig Speelman, Kim Kirsner

    For years now, learning has been at the heart of research within cognitive psychology. How do we acquire new knowledge and new skills? Are the principles underlying skill acquisition unique to learning, or similar to those underlying other behaviours? Is the mental system essentially modular, or is the mental system a simple product of experience, a product that, inevitably, reflects the shape of the external world with all of its specialisms and similarities? This new books takes the view that learning is a major influence on the nature of the processes and representations that fill our minds. Throughout, the authors review and consider the psychological research areas of skill acquisition and lexical representation to illustrate the effects that practice can have on cognitive phenomena. They also draw parallels between theories in physical and biological domains to not only propose a new theory of mental function but also demonstrate that the mind is subject to the same natural laws as the physical world. In so doing Speelman and Kirsner present a new perspective on Psychology--one that identifies universal principles underlying all behaviours and one which contrasts markedly from our current focus on highly specific behaviours. Accessibly written, Beyond the Learning Curve is a thought provoking and challenging new text for students and researchers in the cognitive sciences.

    • Sales Rank: #2236410 in Books
    • Published on: 2005-12-22
    • Original language: English
    • Number of items: 1
    • Dimensions: 6.10" h x .60" w x 9.10" l, 1.00 pounds
    • Binding: Paperback
    • 298 pages

    About the Author
    Craig Speelman is at Senior Lecturer, School of Psychology, Edith Cowan University. Kim Kirsner is at Professor, School of Psychology, University of Western Australia.

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    0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
    Should be taught in colleges of education
    By H. A.
    This is a masterpiece on the forgotten topic of learning curves. Colleges of education do not teach this material, so curricular developers and other decisionmakers do not realize that there are known trends to knowledge and automaticity acquisition.

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    [H288.Ebook] Download The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World, by Zachary Karabell

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    The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World, by Zachary Karabell

    The Leading Indicators was widely and well received as a much needed corrective to the outdated, outmoded economic figures we are accustomed. Every day, we are bombarded with numbers that tell us how we are doing, whether the economy is growing or shrinking, whether the future looks bright or dim. Gross national product, balance of trade, unemployment, inflation, and consumer confidence guide our actions, yet few of us know where they come from, what they mean, or why they rule our world.

    Zachary Karabell tells the fascinating history of these indicators, which were invented in the mid-twentieth century to address the urgent challenges of the Great Depression, World War II, and the Cold War. They were rough measures—designed to give clarity in a data-parched world that was made up of centralized, industrial nations—yet we still rely on them today.

    Today’s world is shaped by information technology and the borderless flow of capital and goods. If we follow a 1950s road map for a twenty-first-century world, we will get lost.

    What is urgently needed is not to invent a new set of numbers but to tap into the data revolution that offers unparalleled access to the information we need. Companies should not base their business plans on GDP projections; individuals should not decide whether to buy a home or get a degree based on the national unemployment rate. If you want to buy a home, look for a job, start a company or run a business, you can readily find your own indicators. National housing figures don’t matter; local ones do. You can find those at the click of button. Personal, made-to-order indicators will meet our needs today, and the revolution is well underway. We need only to join it.

    • Sales Rank: #233548 in Books
    • Published on: 2014-12-30
    • Released on: 2014-12-30
    • Original language: English
    • Number of items: 1
    • Dimensions: 8.37" h x .80" w x 5.50" l, .0 pounds
    • Binding: Paperback
    • 304 pages

    From Booklist
    Karabell traces the history of “leading indicators,” economic statistics including unemployment; inflation; trade; consumer sentiment and spending; the stock market; housing; and Gross Domestic Product (briefly, total market value of all goods and services provided within a country during one year). Leading indicators were designed with limited goals “that describe one reality known as ‘the economy’ but not all reality known as ‘the world we live in.’” In the first half of the twentieth century, leading indicators measured industrial nation-states, while now they measure service-driven developed economies and emerging world industrial economies exporting the goods of multinational companies. Karabell recommends crafting tailored indicators for specific needs using the explosion of information in this era of “Big Data.” Governments should follow the example of the U.S. Federal Reserve in using wide-ranging data and numbers to enhance analysis, many well-run companies develop their own indicators for operational decisions, small businesses need specific indicators for corporate strategy, and individuals using smartphones should access data for creating indicators relating to personal goals. Challenging book. --Mary Whaley

    Review
    “Zachary Karabell’s lively account, The Leading Indicators, is a terrific introduction to the range of statistics economists and governments use to address these questions.” (The New York Times)

    “Karabell offers an engaging account of the history of these indicators, and his explanation of their flaws is both readable and useful for
    non-economists trying to make sense of the barrage of numbers with which they're pelted on a regular basis.” (The Wall Street Journal)

    "[The Leading Indicators] demystifies a lot of current debates, explains its subject matter clearly and shows that the major published macroeconomic statistics are neither nonsense nor conspiracy. Most people could read this book with enjoyment and profit.” (Tyler Cowen The Washington Post)

    “How did we get to the era of Big Data? Karabell…mines little known tidbits in the history of economics to explain how individuals, companies, and countries came to rely on statistics like unemployment, inflation, and gross domestic product to describe the wealth of nations….In Karabell's hands economics is no longer ‘the dismal science.’ More storyteller than analyst here, he succeeds in livening up how ‘the economy’ came to be” (Publishers Weekly)

    “The Leading Indicators presents a potentially dry but important topic in an engaging manner, with wit and intelligence.” (The Cleveland Plain Dealer)

    “[A] lucid measurement of how the United States is faring. . . . Readers of this intelligent introduction to iconic economic indices will agree that Karabell makes an excellent case.” (Kirkus Reviews)

    “Our understanding of the economy is shaped by the numbers we use to measure it. In this engaging and subversive history, Zachary Karabell tells the story of how the indicators came to rule us, who invented them, what they actually tell us, and why we need to rethink all of them if we are to make sense of the world today.” (Justin Fox, Executive Editor, Harvard Business Review)

    “To any who treat the government’s economic data as if it were Holy Writ, Zachary Karabell’s book will come as a revelation. The Leading Indicators is the fast-paced story of the statistics that occupy far too large a part of our national consciousness. If you always suspected that the GDP was a snare and the CPI a delusion, Karabell’s narrative will tell you just how right you were.” (James Grant, Editor, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer)

    “We live in a world of Big Data, and we are led to believe that it contains the truth of our lives. But the numbers that we use to tally our wealth, our productivity, and our very worth as human beings are based not on any absolute truth, but on the shifting sands of politics, culture, and the personal quirks of our leaders. Zachary Karabell is a thinker who understands why economics isn't a hard science. The Leading Indicators is a much needed book about economic numbers that tells us how much—and how little—they ultimately mean.” (Rana Foroohar, Assistant Managing Editor, Time Magazine; Global Economic Analyst, CNN)

    “An enchanting primer on the origins and foibles of our economic numbers, marked with biting critique—and building toward the case for something new, different and adapted to the digital age.” (James K. Galbraith, Professor, UT-Austin, and author of Inequality and Instability)

    “An amusing and eye-opening romp through the history of the powerful numbers, such as the unemployment and inflation rates, that influence the course of national policy. They’re not only out of date, they often point us in the wrong direction. Karabell’s surprising book shows that we don’t know what we think we know, and trillions of dollars hang in the balance.” (Jane Bryant Quinn, author of Making the Most of Your Money NOW)

    About the Author
    Zachary Karabell is an author, money manager, commentator, and president of River Twice Research, where he analyzes economic and political trends. Educated at Columbia, Oxford, and Harvard, where he received his PhD, Karabell has written eleven previous books. He is a regular commentator on CNBC, MSNBC, and CNN. He writes the weekly “Edgy Optimist” column for Reuters and The Atlantic, and is a contributor to such publications as The Daily Beast, Time, The Wall Street Journal, The New Republic, The New York Times, and Foreign Affairs.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    23 of 24 people found the following review helpful.
    An entertaining explanation of key numbers used by economists and governments
    By John Gibbs
    The unemployment figures do not actually tell us about the state of unemployment in a country, GDP figures do not actually give us an accurate measurement of the health of a country’s economy, and the trade deficit between the United States and China may actually be a trade surplus, according to Zachary Karabell in this book.

    The book describes the history of a number of economic measurements which we now take for granted. Measurement of unemployment and national income evolved in the wake of the Great Depression, and gross domestic product took over from gross national product as the favoured measure of a country’s economy by the end of the 20th century. What we do not often realise is that these measures were subject to significant limitations at the times when they were invented, and the limitations have become more substantial over the years as the state of technology and the nature of the economy have changed.

    Although the book provides a good description of the history of various leading indicators, the extent of the inaccuracies described is not entirely clear. For example, the author explains that every iPhone sold in the US adds $229 to the US-China trade deficit, and every iPad adds $275, although components are sourced from countries other than China and the actual cost of assembly in China is only around $10. However, presumably the components imported into China get counted in China’s trade accounts, so the imports and exports should cancel each other out, but the author does not discuss whether this actually happens.

    The book is entertaining and informative, providing a very useful explanation of the key figures used by economists and governments.

    39 of 45 people found the following review helpful.
    Disappointing and Preachy
    By John R. Holmes, Jr.
    Zachary Karabell's "The Leading Indicators" is a disappointment. The author provides a detailed history of the origin and use of today's leading economic indicators, such as GDP and the national unemployment rate, only to alert us that there are limits to single measures of national performance and that such statistics can be misused. Is there anybody alive that doesn't already know this? I doubt we need to know who first started questioning what it means to be "unemployed," and where those early statistics came from, to understand the author's concerns about the use and misuse of summary statistics.

    It seems Mr. Karabell's purpose is to warn us that aggregate statistics say little about individual cases. For example, in discussing the unemployment rate he tells us that within the labor pool there are identifiable subcategories with distinct age, gender, racial, educational and regional features. So between the arbitrary criteria for who gets counted and the distillation of the data into a single number, the end result can be misleading. But before you get your hopes up for alternative indicators, check the following two paragraphs from the author's final chapter:

    Example 1: "What, then, is to be done? It would be satisfying to unveil a new framework and to outline a new set of statistics that would better serve our present needs. That would have the virtue of simplicity, and it would be easy to digest. Instead of GDP, let's have a version of gross national contentment. Instead of the unemployment rate, let's have the employment-education ratio. Problems with our current numbers? Well, then, let's invent new ones." (p246)

    Example 2: "No one number will suffice. That is the key limitation of GDP: not it's methodology, not what it includes or excludes, but the very fact that it attempts to distill into one figure complicated, ever-changing economic systems. The same can be said of each of the indicators invented in the 20th century and so prevalent today. They were and still are more than adequate to answer a specific set of needs. They are far better than nothing, and they still serve a purpose for policy makers, for business, and for individuals as markers that offer some additional guidance about what to do and when to do it." (p247)

    The first conclusion is incoherent. If we can't generalize from gross national product, what makes us think we can generalize from gross national happiness? Won't this new measure, lacking the same stratification by age, race, education, gender and region have the same infirmities? Even worse, the author seems to have embraced this happiness concept due to its reported success in the tiny country of Bhutan. But if he were to read up on ethnic cleansing, he would discover that managing for national happiness can have a steep price. In Bhutan's case that price included expelling a large fraction of their population in the 1990s to preserve Buddhist culture and identity.

    The second conclusion is naive. Contrary to the author's implication, there's no lack of metrics. Just spend a few minutes on the websites of the Census Bureau or the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If anyone wants to understand prices, education, income or employment at a more granular level, it's all there. As for why we "distill into one figure complicated, ever-changing economic systems," the author is confusing cause and effect. It's not that they distill out information we need, it's that we need it to be distilled so that we can see the big picture and track changes over time. And while it's true that these distilled numbers can be intentionally or unintentionally misused, the author himself recognizes the need for them.

    As these two examples illustrate, if there is a single takeaway from this book it's that some people have an irresistible desire to preach. The author has no limits. He even warns that the traditional relationship between GDP and the demand for earthmovers may have changed and that current GDP trends shouldn't matter all that much to Caterpillar. Instead, he advises, "It should matter whether the specific need for its earthmovers and mining equipment and excavators is expanding or contracting." Does anybody imagine Caterpillar doesn't know this?

    In summary, I had great hopes for this book and was very disappointed. Having done a passable job of defining the problem, the author then offers nothing but platitudes. I haven't yet found a book that covers the ground I had hoped this one would cover, but for a book on the limitations of human thinking, try Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow." For the limitations of forecasting, try Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise." And if you're up for swimming in deep macroeconomic waters, especially as it relates to China, try "Avoiding the Fall" by Michael Pettis.

    18 of 20 people found the following review helpful.
    Good, basic coverage
    By JEK
    The book lives up to its title: "The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World". It covers the development and shortcomings of "headline" statistics such as gross domestic product, unemployment, and international trade. Readers will learn some eye-opening things, unless they already know the basics of what measures underlie these statistics and why many such statistics suffer from potentially misleading imperfections. For example, headline unemployment (U-3) doesn't include people who have given up looking for work; so if all workers lose their jobs and decide not to look for new jobs, the headline unemployment rate would fall to zero. The book does get a bit repetitive as it goes along, repeating its basic assertions over and over.

    Bottom line: If everyone read this book, we'd have a much more informed citizenry.

    See all 38 customer reviews...

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    [H570.Ebook] PDF Ebook Freedom on My Mind: A History of African Americans with Documents, Vol. 2: Since 1865, by Deborah Gray White, Mia Bay, Waldo E. Martin Jr.

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    Freedom on My Mind: A History of African Americans with Documents, Vol. 2: Since 1865, by Deborah Gray White, Mia Bay, Waldo E. Martin Jr.

    Award-winning scholars and veteran teachers Deborah Gray White, Mia Bay, and Waldo E. Martin Jr. have collaborated to create a fresh, innovative new African American history textbook that weaves together narrative and a wealth of carefully selected primary sources. The narrative focuses on the diversity of black experience and culture and the impact of African Americans on the nation as a whole. Every chapter contains two themed sets of written documents and a visual source essay, guiding students through the process of analyzing sources and offering the convenience and value of a "two-in-one" textbook and reader.

    • Sales Rank: #633884 in Books
    • Brand: Brand: Bedford/St. Martin's
    • Published on: 2012-12-14
    • Original language: English
    • Number of items: 1
    • Dimensions: 8.80" h x .75" w x 7.02" l, 1.55 pounds
    • Binding: Paperback
    • 592 pages
    Features
    • Used Book in Good Condition

    About the Author
    Deborah Gray White (Ph.D., University of Illinois at Chicago) is Board of Governors Professor of History at Rutgers University. She is the author of many works including Too Heavy a Load: Black Women in Defense of Themselves, 1894-1994; Ar'n't I a Woman? Female Slaves in the Plantation South; and the edited volume Telling Histories: Black Women Historians in the Ivory Tower. She is a recipient of the John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship and the Woodrow Wilson International Center Fellowship. Her current project uses the mass marches and demonstrations of the 1990s to explore the history of the decade. Mia Bay (Ph.D., Yale University) is Professor of History at Rutgers University and the Director of the Rutgers Center for Race and Ethnicity. Her publications include To Tell the Truth Freely: The Life of Ida B. Wells and The White Image in the Black Mind: African-American Ideas about White People, 1830-1925. She is a recipient of the Alphonse Fletcher Sr. Fellowship and the National Humanities Center Fellowship. Currently, she is at work on a book examining the social history of segregated transportation and a study of African American views on Thomas Jefferson. Waldo E. Martin Jr. (Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley) is Professor of History at the University of California, Berkeley. He is the author of No Coward Soldiers: Black Cultural Politics in Postwar America and The Mind of Frederick Douglass and serves as co-editor of the John Hope Franklin Series in African American History and Culture. Current projects include a forthcoming co-authored book on the Black Panther Party, as well as a book on the modern black freedom struggle with an emphasis on the impact of black cultural politics.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
    Four Stars
    By dawn banks
    school book.

    0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
    Four Stars
    By keika1988
    Great textbook

    0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
    Three Stars
    By Mariquita Lopez
    i wanted volume 1

    See all 6 customer reviews...

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    Minggu, 16 Oktober 2011

    [G560.Ebook] PDF Download Networks of Innovation: Change and Meaning in the Age of the Internet, by Ilkka Tuomi

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    Networks of Innovation: Change and Meaning in the Age of the Internet, by Ilkka Tuomi

    Integrating concepts from multiple theoretical disciplines and detailed analyses of the evolution of Internet-related innovations (including computer networking, the World Wide Web and the Linux open source operating system), this book develops foundations for a new theoretical and practical understanding of innovation. It covers topics ranging from fashion to history of art, and includes the most detailed analysis of the open source development model so far published.

    • Sales Rank: #4652058 in Books
    • Published on: 2006-03-30
    • Original language: English
    • Number of items: 1
    • Dimensions: 6.10" h x .80" w x 9.10" l, .90 pounds
    • Binding: Paperback
    • 262 pages

    Review
    `Review from previous edition Surprisingly rewarding ... Food for thought for anyone who has to create new ideas for a living.' Focus

    `Tuomi's Networks of Innovation provides a fresh and extremely insightful analysis of how disruptive innovation actually happens, why innovation is so unpredictable and how is it intimately linked to the change of social practices. In addition he provides a brillant analysis of the innovative processes underlying the creation of both the internet and Linux sidestepping the ideology of open source while providing a highly nuanced reading of its context. This beautifully written book is a must read for any student of innovation.' John Seely Brown, Director Emeritus, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC); co-author The Social Life of Information

    `This book blends a sophisticated theory of innovation with in-depth knowledge of some of the key inventions of the Internet era, including the world wide web, and open source software. It is an essential contribution to the understanding of the Information Technology revolution as a cultural, social, and organizational process.' Manuel Castells, Professor of Sociology, University of California at Berkeley

    `Networks of Innovation illustrates and illuminates the history, the current situation, and the future of the Internet. The book advances theories of innovation and knowledge creation, and explores important problems and possibilities in an era when information and knowledge can be easily transferred via virtual communication.' Ikujiro Nonaka, Professor, International Corporate Strategy, Hitotsubashi University

    `Tuomi's excellent work analyses the complex relationships between innovative change and the construction of meaning. If you are interested in the wider societal and economic implications of the Internet, you should read this book!' Georg von Krogh, Professor of Management, University of St. Gallen, Switzerland

    About the Author
    Ilkka Tuomi is at Visiting Scientist at the European Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville. Ilkka Tuomi is at Visiting Scientist at the European Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.

    Most helpful customer reviews

    1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
    Innovation viewed through a social lens
    By R. Ruiz De Querol
    A short book, written from the perspective of a research interested in the links between "Technology" and "Society". To me the book was worth reading if only for its focus on two insights.

    a) Innovation is about social change. A new product, a new technology, that does not provoke changes of behaviour will end up just being a foot note in some academic record. Socially irrelevant.

    b) Radical innovations tend to appear in the intersection between disciplines. Specialized organizations produce incremental innovations. Radical innovations require a more open environment. The history of the development of Internet, covered in the book, is a good example.

    A quick read, non academical.

    See all 1 customer reviews...

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